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Thursday, October 4, 2012

Hall of Fame Candidacy

Here is a brief synopsis of eligble players for the hall of fame, including a % that indicates their worthiness to the Hall. Note just because a player does not receive 100% does not mean that hes not a hall of famer. Double note: this is all in my opinion and others may evaluate players careers in a different manner than I do. I will only discuss the players that I feel deserve a look. Feel free to discuss in the comments section anything that you desire to.

C Heath Bellhorn- .598 career slugging as well and was robbed of about 6-7 prime seasons by beginning the world in season 1. Was a poor defensive catcher however.
Odds: 35%

P Robert Buckley- Career 2.5-1 K-BB ratio, and again began in S 1.
Odds: 20%

Andrea Dipoto: .568 slugging, 2175 hits, 600+ HRs.  Only three all-star games.
Odds: 40%

D'Angelo Garces- 3 MVPs, 6 AS, .611 OPS, 600+ HRs, 2700 hits, and a career .325 avg. Should be a surefire hall of famer.
Odds: 85%

Kennie Hartman- .511 Slug, played SS, almost 2000 hits and 500 Hrs.
Odds: 60%

Felix Haynes: .533 slug, played a lot of 2B, 2500 hits.
Odds: 50%

Gary Kelly- Catcher, 2000, 500 club, .539 slug, 5 gold gloves at catcher
Odds: 80%

Felipe Manto: .542 slug, .318 avg, 2800,400 club
Odds: 60%

Clarence Morgan- 200 wins, 2.2 K-BB, 5 All-stars
Odds: 60%

Juan Pineiro- 2700,600 club- .558 slug...great player, just missed out last season with 16 votes but this season will probably fall short as a lot of new nominees that are better are on the ballot.
Odds: 85%

Lance Scott: .599 slug, 2400,600 club, 9 AS, GG at 3B, played a lot of SS.
Odds: 95%

Alex Vidal- .616 slug, 2800,790 club, 10 AS, SS at SS
Odds: 100%

Kevin Wan- 2600,700 club .565 slug, played a lot of DH
odds: 85%

I am voting for Wan, Vidal, Scott, Kelly, Garces




Monday, October 1, 2012

Winners and Losers - Free Agency

Winners

Portland: Receiving the 22nd overall pick as well as a supplemental round pick for Wesley Cassidy at age 38 has to be considered one of the most beneficial moves of the offseason.

Oakland: I have a theory that if you're going to sign an A compensation player then you should sign a lot of them. Apparently Nasboat has the same theory, as he signed 5 players, Trent House Connie Hyzdu Tomas Martin Lonnie Davidson Miguel Mendez . Not too mention that he also bought out Wesley Trout only to then bring him back for a total of about 7mil less than he was signed to for this coming season. If you think that is all, Oakland then receives A comp for Yusmeiro Reynoso. All things counted, Oakland loses his first 5 round picks, but adds a 3rd round (Reynoso), and a couple of supplemental picks for departed FAs. This was a great retooling for an already great team.

Santa Fe: Adding 2 A comps and the afforementioned Reynoso as well as Eswalin Valenzuela. both of these players were signed late and to very friendly deals. This should help solidify the Fires lineup as we expect a few of those young stud pitchers such as Joshua Siddall could be joining the big league team.

Cincinatti: Adding Cassidy (See Portland), Trenidad Lee and Sergio Drabek add depth and top end talent to an already potent team. With Cincinatti, Seattle and the next team all in the same division it could prove to make the division races very important in the other divisions.

Fans of Hartford:  Dicky Aoki and Pat Masato represent managements commitment to winning this season. Hartford should see a noticeable improvement in the standings this season as this young squad looks poised to make a run for the playoffs.


Losers

Wesley Trout : Anytime you have to take a 7mil pay cut in one season, the wife is not going to be happy. Trout can always tell his wife that he received a longer deal, but he will have to fight father time to be rewarded with the backloaded 3rd year of that deal. I expect a buyout will be coming Trouts way come season 26.

Cincinatti: This is a bit of a non-ballsy answer as I'm playing both sides of the fence here, but It should be noted that Cassidy is an all or nothing move for Cincy as that 22nd pick is a high price to pay for the 38 year old (albeit a very good 38 year old).

Fans of Seattle: This top team continues to keep the payroll around 25mil. Hopefully fans are rewarded with a dynasty in the years to come as they continue to battle for IFAs.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Huntington / Kansas City

To KC: Curtis Jeter

To Huntington: Brett Wheeler

It appears that KC's bullpen is fatigued after trading away most or all of their long relievers. Wheeler is a very capable reliever who should help solidify Huntingtons bullpen for the rest of this year and possibly 1-2 more until he reaches arbitration and commands more than the league minimum. Jeter is pure garbage, and can barely get the ball across the plate, but he does have one talent, a rubber arm. He will eat up innings and help give the more talented arms in KC a rest every now and then. This trade boils down to one thing. Wheeler is a major league arm, and Jeter is not.

Verdict: Huntington 66% (0 vetoes out of 10)

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Huntington / Jackson

To Huntington: Manuel Melo

To Jackson: Pedro Vazquez Sun-Woo Cheng and 2.1mil Cash

Pigs fly as these two GMs come to an agreement on a deal at the deadline. Melo is a former 6.7m IFA first baseman, who bats left and has a career avg of .300 while averaging about 20 Hrs in Jacksons pitcher friendly confines. Melo should help to form the core of the future in Huntington. What Huntington needs to do now is turn many of their DH/1B/C types into various positions or pitchers.

Jackson receives 33 year old Vazquez, who will be a free agent this season and also has a career average over .300 with less power than Melo and has no defensive position. Cheng looks to be a younger version of Vazquez whom for some reason has had a very slow development but looks to be rounding the corner and could surprise a lot of people. This trade comes down to two things. 1. Do you think Cheng will fulfull his potential, and 2. Do you think Vazquez will get signed by another team in the offseason and bring compensation to the Jackson franchise?

Melo seems like a low risk for Jackson to take here. Melo is clearly the best player here and he is still young, I like the gamble Jackson is taking here (especially because Vazquez should drop with Huntingtons low training budget dropping him to a B comp from an A so he should get signed, while Huntington adds a much needed middle of the order bat for the next decade. So to me the trade looks like this in a year, Cheng and a future quality middle reliever ( B comp) for Melo...I like this deal for Huntington.

Verdict: Huntington 55 % (1 veto out of ten) because there is more cash being traded than received

Houston / Kansas City

To Houston: Vernon Corey

To KC: Rafael Mercedes

Kansas City has been inquiring about Mercedes for 3 seasons from GM Diamond and it looks like the two teams have finally come to an agreement. With Houston having starting pitching problems and KC having an abundance of back end starters filling long relief roles, the two GMs were able to come to an agreement. Corey will pitcher above average but not spectacular and eat up a lot of innings while attempts to stay in the playoff race. Merecedes did make his major league debut earlier this season pitching 6 games with a .227 OBA and a 1.16 Whip, while Corey looks to rebound to his season 22 form where he posted a .246 OBA and a 1.31 Whip with 16 wins over 198 IP.

KC will add to a growing stable of good but not great relief arms at the major league level. This trade boils down to a classic question, would you rather have 80 good innings a year or 200 above average innings. This is a  very even deal, although Houston fills an immediate need and KC is now succeptible to not having an innings eater in the bullpen.


Verdict: Houston 51% (0 vetoes out of 10).

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The International Game

Roberto Herrera
Seattle
Samurai
Age: 19B/T: L/R
Born: Villa Vazquez, DO
Position(s): 2B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile
Hideo Yamaguchi
Trenton
River Rats
Age: 18B/T: L/L
Born: Tokyo, JP
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

In the last couple of days there have been two significant offseason signings. Seattle signed Dominicans 2nd baseman Herrera for 20m, while Trenton signed Japans pitcher Yamaguchi to a 16.4m bonus. Both project to be future impact players at the MLB level. It is scary how good this Seattle team is looking and that their payroll is low enough to be able to afford the luxury of such international dollars.

Herrera projects as a middle of the order left handed bat that should result in many all-star game appearances. Paired with the prize IFA from a few seasons ago, Tsubasa Cheung this looks like a strong middle of the order for many years to come. Expect Herrera to be in the big leagues by season 25.

In Trenton Yamaguchi is an enigma. He can turn out anywhere from a good number 2 to a great number 3-4 starter. It will be interesting to see how Yamaguchi turns out as he appears to have a lot of top pitches and good velocity but his vs RHP is only average, while his vs LHP projects to be Yamaguchi will also struggle to throw more than 5-6 IPs in most games but will make up for that by being available every 4th day (assuming he can stay off the DL).

Regardless both of these players are great signings at this point in the season.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Mexico / Jackson


To Mexico (12): Harry Reynoso and 2million in cash

Jackson sends future Hall of Famer in his prime Reynoso for Lefty slugging Al Bennett who will be a very nice hitting, poor fielding SS and should have a very fine career. Kirby's value is pretty equal to zero, while Painter is a very nice pitcher who is who he is at this point. He is a nice number 3, or poor 2. Painters splits are nice however, his pitches and control both being non elite are what hold him back. In four MLB seasons thus far, he has 0 all-star games, 42 wins, and a career Whip of 1.29. It is however a much better trade than the last trade.

Verdict: Mexico 100% (10 vetoes out of 10).

LA / Texas

To LA (12): Fernando Ortiz Don Kell

To Texas (14): Louis Camilli and 448k cash

Texas and LA hook up yet again for another trade. This time Camilli waives his no trade clause to Texas. Louis has had a fine career but at this point is a situational player who can provide a good glove with little range off the bench. LA had no intentions of signing Louis long term and he would not bring compensation in the offseason so scoring some low level prospects is a decent return. Kell is a right handed DH who is pretty much useless defensively and can be used in a platoon situation vs lefties, the only question is where will he be used in the National League. Ortiz is a switch hitter and can be used vs righties, as a base runner and defensively at a variety of positions.

Verdict: LA 60% (0 vetoes out of 10)

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Texas / Houston VETOED


To Houston (16): Antonio Ono Harry Reynoso Ozzie Shin and 3.2mil CASH

Looks like 'Machine Gun' Kelly arrived at the doorsteps of the mudcats and stole two premiere pitchers in all of WIS, yet alone the Mike Greenwell world. Ono, possibly the greatest pitcher in the history of the world, who may one day be unseated in that category by Reynoso are sent to Houston along with Shin, whom is a decent hitting offensive catcher head to Houston with some cash, for Belliard who is a nice player for the 3/4 of a season that he can play. Brooks is a lower end of the rotation future starter who should max out with a mid 70 vs Rhp rating, which is more than 15 below each of Ono and Reynoso. Kenji is a nice bat but as we've mentioned many times over, a DH is a dime a dozen when theres only 16 positions for them to play and over 50 of them in the league. I'm sure the next owner of Jackson appreciates a 4 advance scouting rating doing the rebulding for him.

Verdict: Houston 100% (10 vetoes out of 10)

Friday, August 3, 2012

Monterrey / Jackson

To Monterrey (0): Vernon Diaz and over 2mil in cash

To Jackson (4): Theodore Hume Vladimir Lee Norm Ebert

(brackets beside the teams signifies their advance scouting budget)

The dismantling of the Jackson franchise has begun (departing owner has said he is rebuilding the club for the next owner) with 29 year old and multiple time all-star short-stop Vernon Diaz. Diaz is a former gold glove winner as well and multiple time silver slugger (although I think this is a bit more to being in a league that favors defense more than offense) and will definitely be missed in Jackson. Coming to Jackson in return is Ebert who holds a similar bat to Diaz only behind the plate. Diaz is however a weaker defensive catcher. Lee is a future cf/2b type who will definitely have a future at the major league level. and carries a nice bat. Lee will be a subpar defender in center but a very nice addition defensively if he plays second. He also will hold a low overall but play better than that, thus in the future he will cost his team less in a long term contract. Rounding out the haul is SS Hume. Hume will provide very capable defense. Hume also has a surprisingly decent bat despite low contact as he has nice splits and they are magnified by being a switch hitter, although I think this is small sample size and if played full time his stats will drop.  Diaz's high overall should of brought back more and this is definitely a victory for Monteray. A 3 for 1 rarely works out in favor of the team receiving the 3, especially when there are no true stars in that group of 3, not too mention that Jackson is paying most of the remaining salary for Diaz. I think next years Jackson owner will be very dissapointed looking back at this deal.

Verdict: Monteray: 100%, (10 vetoes out of 10)

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Mexico / Pittsburgh

To Mexico: Terry Watkins Rudy Clinton

To Pittsburgh: Gill Tanaka Norman Volstad Neftali Maradona

Mexico grabs future hall of famer, Watkins, and his career .325 avg (although its .290 this year), along with an above average defensive SS in Clinton who hits .270, Mexico also receives 4.25m to help pay for all of this. Pittsburgh continues to move all talent out of the pilgrims clubhouse. Coming in is Gill Tanaka and his horrible 2 year 5.4mil contract. Hopefully Tanaka is arrested for grand theft, from every owner whose ever had to pay him a dime, before next season begins so that Pittsburgh can appeal to the whatifsports to have the contract thrown out on the basis that Tanaka is in jail. Maradona will continue his great effort at breaking the all time Mike Greenwell strikeout record. Has there ever been a player to strikeout 600 times in his first 5 seasons before? Also heading to Pittsburgh is Volstad, who carries a nice stick on him but unfortunately Pittsburgh plays in the NL and can not play a DH. So to wrap this up, Pittsburgh agrees to give up the two best players in the deal, take on 5.4mil next season and will play Volstad at DH for 6 games a year and for the other 120-130 games a year that he will play he will put his best effort forth to not commit 30 negative plays a year.

Verdict: Mexico 90% (9 vetoes out of 10)

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Texas / LA

To Texas: Gerald Liang Al Moya

To LA: Ernest Grimsley Johnnie Mench Howard Aspromonte

Texas receives borderline hall of famer Liang, who is finishing up his career at age 39, and the prize of the deal Al Moya. Moya is a perenial all-star caliber player who can play almost anywhere in the field. This should really help Texas as they appear to be building a very nice squad to challenge for the NL crown. Heading to LA is Grimsley who is an above average ML starter but will never live up to his first overall amateur draft status. He should however be compensation worthy in the off-season. Hopefully for LA he becomes a B comp and not an A comp as I am not sure anyone would want to surrender a pick for him in free agency. Mench is a quality yet overpaid utility player, and the big sscore for LA is prized prospect Aspromonte. He will end up as a nice player who should be able to squeak out an all-star game appearance or two and is cost controlled. He will however never reach the levels of Moya.

Verdict: Texas 90% (8 vetoes out of 10)

Boston / Huntington

To Huntington: Jeffrey Lee

Wow a lot to analyze here. Heading to Boston is Payton, whom is one of the more underrated players in the league. He provides gold glove caliber defense at CF or 2B and is on a very comfortable 2.1m salary for the rest of this year and next year. Orval Brown who has been tossed around a lot this season for a pitcher with his potential. If developed right he could be a very nice middle of the rotation starter. Its unfortunate his big league clock has been started already. In order to take on these two pieces Boston has to take on Kells big 4mil contract. Huntington receives a downgrade in CF from Payton to Lee and the all important cap space to try and sign their first round pick. This trade boils down to, do you think Brown is worth taking on a 4mil contract, and I think it is for Boston. Payton is also nice and its not a guarantee someone like him will be available for so cheap this offseason. Huntington has now fired all their bullets on the trade market to sign Poseidon. Lets hope he's worth it.

Verdict: Boston 90% (vetoes 3 out of 10)

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Wichita / LA

To LA: Bing Payton
To Wichita: Don Hammond Julio Peguero Ted Dawkins

Interesting trade as LA acquires a young developing outfielder in Bing Payton who rakes righties. He is also a superior defensive corner outfielder who has a chance to develop into a below average defensive CF. Wichita gets Hammond who is a good reliever in his arbitration years so his salary is likely to increase. Peguero needs to develop his control and pitches in order to be an effective player, As of now it looks like he might top out as an inconsistent but effective at times arm in the bullpen, while Dawkins appears to be a career minor leaguer. Although Payton is not worth his high 70s overall rating, I have to think that could be parlayed into more than what Wichita received. In this trade I'm going to say the team that got the best player came out victorious.

Verdict: LA 85% (2 vetoes out of 10).

Chicago / Huntington


To Huntington: Yoshinori Wang Laynce Bundy and 1million dollars

Huntington sure has been busy, trying to free up that cap space to try and sign their first round pick. As they should be they could definitely use another large bat in the system. Chicago receives a decent bullpen arm in Rushford, however at 2mil for 2 years for 40 innings a year I'm not sure if thats a great investment. Espada is an average long relief arm with a low price tag, but the key to the deal for Chicago is bringing back their long lost son, Rabbit Garcia, whom they traded away a couple of seasons ago. Garcia is a high quality young bullpen arm. In return the Heartthrobs acquire Bundy, and Wang who will never make the bigs, however the shedding of the Rushford contract and receiving 1 million dollars is exactly what Shipoopi was after here. This deal boils down to, Garcia and Rushford was bought for 1mil this year and 2mil next year.I think thats a solid investment for Chicago, and the cap space for Chicago still doesn't mean anything until that pick gets signed.

Verdict: Chicago 51% (2 vetoes out of 10). note the assumption on vetoes is because some owners have a no cash for players policy

Huntington / Houston

To Houston: Vernon Richard and 250K
To Huntington: Andre Walters

Houston brings Vernon Richard back home after losing him to free agency. Richard is on a 2.1m deal with an option for next season. Richard isn't a world beater but he is a major league arm. While Huntington sheds some more salary and receives a minor leaguer who will likely never see the bigs in Walters. Pure salary dump for Huntington which is what they want and Houston receives a major league arm to help chase that wild card spot.

Verdict: Houston 51%  (0 vetoes out of 10)

Monday, July 30, 2012

San Fran / Huntington

To Huntington: Carlos Cano

To San Fran: Alex Park and 750k

This trade is all about Huntington trying to clear salary. Not only did they move Parks 2mil salary next year but they got themselves 1mil under the cap, which gets them closer to the target of being 6mil under the cap in order to sign first round pick Poseidon Hand. That could prove to be difficult however, so lets rate this trade assuming that does not happen.

Park is an end of the rotation starter or long reliever who makes 2million too much for two years too long. Meanwhile, Cano projects to be a future Park. Hopefully he has the same agent and can find himself a similar contract to Park this offseason. The odds of Cano seeing any playing time in the pro's this year are slim to none as I'm doubting that Shipoopi wants to add any more major league salaries to his squad. There is also the outside chance that in S 25 off season that Park could net San Fran a B compensation pick.

Verdict: Huntington 60% (0 vetoes out of 10)

Boston / Mexico


To Boston: Paul Shaw Andy Stone

To Mexico: Gill Tanaka Wilkin Tapies and FIVE MILLION DOLLARS

Boston sure has been a busy team. Now what hasn't been said about this trade. The trade can be broken down into one simple scenario. Shaw for Tapies is a wash. Both are future emergency call-ups at best. Tanaka for Stone is the key part of the deal. Stone has a one year contract remaining, while Tanaka has two years. Boston frees up 5.4mil in next years payroll while Mexico gains 5mil this year to try and sway first round selection Nolan Jenkins to sign. Jenkins profile can be found here.
http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/ProspectProfile.aspx?pid=5113371

Although Boston gains something important to them, which is freedom from a terrible contract. Mexico gains a whole lot more if they can sign this stud prospect. With Boston being one of only a handful of teams with the cash to make this trade happen. (Chicago, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Montreal, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Trenton). I'd have to believe that boston could have received more than 5mil relief in next years payroll.

Verdict: Mexico 75% (5 veto votes out of 10)

Boston / Texas

To Boston:  Joel Lincoln Evan Fitzgerald Pascual Navarro

To Texas: Alex Chavez

Boston wastes no time after receiving Chavez, and immediately takes down the white towel that was presumed after shipping off their starting 3B, as they ship him to the National league's Texas Beefsquatches. Chavez is an average hitting utility player who can play everywhere but CF/SS, and can provide some gap power against leftys, which is a rare skill for a lefty hitting batter. In return Boston receives switch hitting Navarro who is on a league minimum contract for the next 3 seasons after this season and should be able to put up similar numbers to Chavez, while providing defense at 3B. Boston also receives a quality bullpen arm in Fitzgerald who seems to be undervalued as this is his 3rd team of the season, as well as a young pitching prospect in Lincoln. Lincoln's ceiling appears to be that of a future mopup or emegency call up, his most likely destination is as the ace of a AAA staff.

Essentially this trade is Fitzgerald and Navarro for Chavez. With Navarro and Chavez being a wash, and Navarro being on a longer term contract for the minimum. Fitgerald is just icing on the cake.

Verdict: Boston 66%  (2 veto votes out of 10)

Monday, January 23, 2012

Wichita / Boston

To Wichita: Desi Hernandez

To Boston:  Alex Chavez

Analysis: Wichita receives a good fielding third baseman who should continue to hit around .280 with 15-20 dingers per year. Hernandez represents a big step up at 3rd base for the Shockers as their previous 3B production was coming from light hitting, Jumbo Mendoza . Boston receives the lefty hitting Chavez who should put up offensively similar numbers to Hernandez, but will provide a lower level of defense at 3B as it appears thats where he will play for Boston, as I can not see any other options on the Boston team for 3rd base. As top prospect Shelley Poole appears to be a year or two away from making a significan impact for the big league club. Is this trade a sign that Boston is waiving the white towel on the season in order to shed Hernandez's 6.3mil contract next season?

Speaking of contracts and future implications of this trade. It boils down to this. Wichita gains Hernandez who is an upgrade over Chavez, while agreeing to pay 6.5mil (which is a bit more than he is worth) next season in exchange for a player that may bring them compensation in the S 25 offseason.While Boston receives salary cap relief.


Verdict: Wichita 55%  (1 veto vote out of 10)